Recent ‘mood swings’ (volatility) in the markets

Given the recent ‘mood swings’ (volatility) in the markets, I think it’s important that I provide a sense of perspective. There is no question that when we wake up to a 1000 point drop on the DOW Jones and it bounces back 800 points in 2 hours it tests the convictions of investors. As your trusted advisor who selects the money managers for your savings, we have always focused on the growth with capital preservation. You have heard me say this over and over, “it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep”. As a result of our disciplined active investment management process, you have done well, and should feel confident about the future.

Here are some stats (btw – people tend not to pay attention to stats until they become one):

Market corrections are normal. On average you have:

• 3 corrections of 5% per year.
• 1 correction of 10% per year.
• 1 correction of 20% every three years.

The question then becomes is this current market volatility a garden variety correction or the end of the bull market? There are two elements that can bring an end to the bull market:

1. A recession in the United States
2. A global financial crisis

Our view is that it is very unlikely that the U.S. is entering a recession, but rather a correction. Historically, U.S. recessions are caused by two things:

1. The US Federal Reserve aggressively tightening interest rate to fight inflation.
2. Businesses cutting back as they have too much inventory.

We believe this is a garden variety correction and that there is no real data to support that the U.S. is in a recession or that we are heading towards a global financial crisis. Markets appear to be oversold. We have all experienced significant sell-offs (downturns) in the market during the past six years, none of which signalled the end of the bull market. The most destructive equity market sell-offs have typically been associated with economic contraction and the odds of a global recession remain rather low.

Final thoughts to keep in mind:

1. Corrections are normal and the above two factors that would make this a big one are NOT present.
2. This is a buying opportunity as we are not yet at the bottom but are getting their quickly.
3. Stay the course.

Thank you and enjoy the rest of your summer!

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A Better Way

Occasionally an article lands in my in-box and I say to myself, “this is exactly what I’m thinking and I’m surprised that this is news to so many advisors!” Enjoy…

I heard a story a few years ago about a young couple who were hosting their first family dinner. While helping his wife in the kitchen, a young man watched as she cut the ends off a roast before putting it in the pot. Curiously he asks, “Why did you cut off the ends of the roast?” She thinks about it and replies, “Because that’s the way my mother taught me.” Confused, he asks his mother in-law the same question and she replies, “Because that’s the way my mother taught me.” Now more confused than before, he asks his wife’s grandmother and she answers without hesitation, “I had a small roasting pot, that’s the only way it would fit”. Just because something has always been done a certain way, doesn’t make it the best way. Many industries continue to do things a certain way out of habit or tradition, the financial planning industry is no exception.

Early financial planning software was developed around a process that was heavily influenced by the limitations of the computers available at the time. Like the roasting pot that was too small for the roast, computers lacked memory and processing speed forcing programmers to “cut the ends off” the analysis to make it fit. Many of the early financial planning programs struggled to calculate the plan in under a minute. This limitation made using the software in front of a client difficult. The lack of speed also meant that doing any type of automated analysis was nearly impossible. To address these limitations, software developers promoted the idea that financial planning analysis was a complicated process and that proper advice could not be provided in a single meeting. They added “what-if” scenarios so the advisor could manually incorporate a recommendation then re-calculate to see if the solution worked in advance of meeting with the client for a second or third time. Today, this trial & error approach of running multiple scenarios before meeting with a client, although very inefficient, is still the norm. However, modern programming allows complex calculations to run in seconds instead of minutes, and automation can perform many of the routine functions we deal with in an analysis.

A BETTER WAY! So why aren’t more advisors doing the financial analysis in front of clients in real time? It’s not the hardware; Wi-Fi is everywhere and computers are inexpensive and fast. Our limitation is in the processes we follow and software we utilize. By revisiting our approach, simplifying the complexities, and allowing the software to perform routine calculations for us, financial planning can become an important part of every client meeting. A financial plan is a living document and the software we use should provide real-time analysis, eliminating the need for multiple meetings. When you stop doing it the way it’s always been done and embrace these new technologies, your meetings will be less about the numbers and more about what really matters to your client.

Dave Faulkner, CLU, CFP
CEO, Razor Logic Systems Inc

If you or someone you care about would like to increase the probability of achieving their life goals and objectives, then do yourself a favour and make a date with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional who is planning focused, not product driven. Our goal is to make sure we address our clients most pressing concerns and to make certain that we do not overlook the details when it comes to your big picture thinking!

Until next time, continue to live for today, but plan for tomorrow.

AF

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TFSA and RRIF Changes

On April 21, 2015, the Federal budget introduced changes to TFSAs and Registered Retirement Income Plans.

    • TFSA contribution limit increase from $5,500 to $10,000
    • Registered Retirement Income Plans now have lower calculated minimum withdrawal factors – lower minimum payments to clients.
    • Changes are retroactive to January 1, 2015.

Until next time, continue to live for today, but plan for tomorrow.

AF

 

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604.531.0022


Aaron Fransen   CFP® , CHS, CPCA   |   CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, Investment Advisor   |   Suite 203 - 15350 34th Avenue, South Surrey, BC V3S 0X7   |   Tel: 604.531.0022